Indikerer ytterligere kutt
Norges Bank indikerer samtidig at styringsrenten kan bli redusert ytterligere det neste året. Figuren nedenfor viser rentebanen til Norges Bank etter de siste fire rentemøtene.
Rentekuttet gir en kortsiktig positiv verdigevinst i renteporteføljer, men lavere løpende rente på lang sikt.
Bankene har allerede fulgt opp rentekuttet med lavere låne- og innskuddsrenter. Utviklingen i bankenes innlånskostnader vil også påvirke utviklingen i låne- og innskuddsrenter fremover. Innskudd er fortsatt ugunstig som en langsiktig investeringsform når man tar hensyn til skatt og inflasjon.
Det norske rentenivået gir rom for flere kutt fremover. Det er fortsatt verdi i norske renter, for eksempel i DNB Obligasjon III. Muligheten for ytterligere rentekutt er gode argumenter for å ha en viss durasjon i porteføljen av norske rentepapirer.
Rentekuttet er mindre relevant for høyrenteobligasjoner. I for eksempel DNB High Yield er rentedurasjonen så kort som ca. ett år og det er kredittrisikoen som dominerer.
Norges Banks rentekutt svekker kronen. En svakere norsk krone gir positiv omregningseffekt på investeringer utenfor Norge. De korte makroøkonomiske effektene av rentekuttet her utover at svakere krone er positivt for eksportindustrien, mens importvarer og utenlandsopphold blir dyrere.
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